I seem to be reading a lot of posts that are talking about national yield. There is a lot of feeling that USDA is too high and I would agree with that. I am seeing a lot of guesses at 163 and 165 for yields. At 83.5 million harvested acres and a national yield of 163 we are only losing about 650 million bushels of carryover from the current estimate. That would leave us with a carryover of about 1.65+ and that still doesn't seem that bullish to me. A 165 yield would give us a 1.8+ carryover and that is all considering demand does not drop because of slightly higher prices. What are some thoughts on price if we lower carryover to 1.65 to 1.8? |