Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | A few days ago there was a discussion about soybean exports, how much there was left to go, and ending stocks. In order to get some sense of the situation I plotted out soybean exports, those shipped and those sales booked but not shipped for the past few years as well as the Oiltable1 from ERS's Soybeans annual supply & disappearance which I updated with more recent information (red boxes). First, that extra 7.5 MMT (275 million bushel) we moved last summer sure helped with the carryout. As far as this year's exports go, if you look at where we are and make the assumption that we still have a few more weeks of typical sales & shipments we can very possibly achieve the USDA's 2.050 billion bushel (55.85 MMT) target. Furthermore if we can continue to crush another 3% in the coming months, the 1.930 billion crush is achievable as well.
Quite frankly, now everything depends on just how short the Brazilians were last year and how soon they can start pushing beans on to the boats this year. I'm hoping that their pipeline is depleted enough such that they really can't crank up the exports until March.
Note: I split the difference and put 130 M bushel in under seed & residual.
Edited by 1234 12/29/2016 19:36
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Soybean disappearance?
