I just laid out the case below..  the OPEC agreement is getting some credit for holding together.. most do not believe they can maintain discipline..

However, the REAL driver is going to be Trumps position on Iran "allegedly" breaking the Nuclear agreement made with the Obama administration.

THAT is going to be what to watch.. If you took the World's 3rd largest Crude producer offline.. what would markets do?

$100 crude...??  probably... could not rule it out..

This looks dicey..  you can read up on it on your own.. not going to link the comments.. but Trump administration sounds serious. 

( https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/05/20/is-ir... ) 

"Isakson’s ad is about the Iran deal and his opposition to it. It claims that Iran is “already violating” the nuclear agreement by illegally testing ballistic missiles. Yet the actual deal did not have restrictions on ballistic missiles testing. Instead, the U.N. resolution that implements the deal contains the language. A range of experts we consulted said that the testing could be argued as violating the Iran deal but that it will be difficult. It’s an important technical distinction that is not reflected in the ad, ultimately misleading viewers. Moreover, it’s a matter of interpretation as to whether the testing is “illegal” under the resolution.

We understand that it’s probably not as catchy for a narrator in a campaign ad to say, “Western leaders view Iran’s missile tests as a violation of the U.N. resolution passed in tandem” or that the testing is “inconsistent with the spirit of the Iran deal.” But both of those phrases are accurate, and are certainly preferable to the sweeping, inaccurate claim in the ad."

 I can guess.. how the Trump administration is gonna look at it...