After searching for a while, I finally found the May 12, 2015 supply and demand report and unfortunately, it is true that the USDA had figures totaling 500 million ending stocks for soybeans. I noticed they decreased exports by 70 million from last year which is strange looking at the current pace. They will certainly need some cancellations pretty soon to help support their export number. None the less, the biggest thing for me is plugging in the different yield scenarios. 46 bushels was there choice in the report and this very well could be reality, but the chances are just as good that the national average could go lower depending on summer weather. I'm implying that a weather premium rally is certainly possible. Just looking at the past 10 years of data the national soybean average is around 41 bushels per acre. If by some random chance the U.S were to average 41 bushels per acre which doesn't sound out of the realm of possibility, the ending stock figure would automatically be reduced to 81 million bushels. This is what I call fundamental analysis, and if we can combine technical analysis with fundamentals good things can happen when trying to market our crops. I'm watching exports closely, and taking into consideration the significant impact that the U.S soybean yield will have on our ending stocks which could possibly give us some selling opportunities between now and harvest. I'm currently 50% hedged on my 2015 soybeans and my local price today is 9.30 for November delivery on a basis contract. With such a bearish sentiment in the grain complex, I wanted to share some of my thoughts in regards to soybean prices moving forward. I have learned a lot from many of the posters here on technical analysis and am very appreciative for the free knowledge and feel compelled to add what little I have to offer when possible. For what it’s worth, if November 2015 soybeans go much lower in the short term, I will be a buyer at my own risk simply because a weather premium should be very valuable considering the remote possibility of a 41 bushel average yield. Good luck to all!!