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NCND | Say we harvest 90mmt out of brazil instead of 95.5 per usda. Does that give us a rally in Nov15 or do we just stop the bleeding?
It is looking like corn wants to go lower so maybe we switch into more beans even though as Sat points out the c/b ratio is buying corn right now thru the blood letting in beans.
Say we plant 87 million acres and the corn story is bullish just on that number alone not factoring in weather or anything simply acre number. How do beans rally in the face of the acreage coming online in NA we seem to have staring us down the barrel?
Does a man or woman play this buy buying some cheap calls and when I say cheap I am talking 5 cents and under as they cannot go to zero during the growing season given the risks every crop faces?
Last summer 10$ puts on nov hit 2 cents in June and went north of 110 I believe! Now we are going the other way and calls are asking very cheap premiums for stuff 1-1.50 out of the money which in the world of beans is a good 3-6 day rally in the nearby contracts. What are the chances of such a move? Slim to none or what does it take out of brazil to get us to add a dollar to the market because of crop getting smaller there? Does a brazil cut of 5mmt and a possible insurance rally get us to pop that buck or so?
Nov 15 options still seem to have some decent premium in them as 10000 calls are fetching 40 cents so I don't see it as time to start buying any yet and may sell some more as there is premium to be had(I'd be happy with 1040 futures price if I were to get blown out) and I just can't come up with much for bullishness given the acreage coming online??????????
Is this a time to keep selling premium do you think or is it a time to be still and wait for premium to build back IF we get the brazil cuts needed to build back premium?
It feels like we are at a fork in the road or can at least see it down the road? Do we do as yogi berra said and take it?
I bought calls for may 11 this am at 3'7 wondering if the fool and his money parted ways or the risk reward makes it a worthy effort?
It looks like we could have an early spring so that is bearish corn in that if guys have planters rolling 2 weeks ahead of normal are they going to finish their corn and wait for bean insurance dates or they going to plant an extra quarter or 2 of corn? Who parks the planters in the spring with good weather and soil condidtions? That seems to be the easiest way for my thought process for beans to get to 1050 first, second would obviously be poor bean planting weather and thirdly poor rain during pod fill. Thoughts?
Edited by vailcat 1/30/2015 13:27
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Can anyone make a case for a Nov15 bean north of 1050?
