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Middle Tennessee | Like always guys, I beg for your indulgence, and thank you for putting up with mine. I noticed something in the yen chart today, and took the opportunity to update my blog,
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All the people who have been close to me over the years will tell you: few can match my capacity for generating embarrassment with the occasional major social faux pas. Through all that I’ve learned, at least in a perfect world, good conversation from bad. An example of good conversation might be mentioning, this week, I went to The War on Drugs concert with my wife, and how that event propelled me further into an adolescent obsession with the band and their music.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkLOg252KRE
(Sorry for the commercial, song's worth it...You guys got CD players in those cabs? I swear rolling some War on Drugs will make that harvest roll roll right by.)
Examples of bad conversation in casual social milieu may be (again, I know from experience), casual mention that I’m a teacher with no background in agriculture or finance, but my real interest is the grain-exchange markets, or how the autumn reminds me of nothing more than psylocibin.
But heck, I guess that is a reason for blogging, to say what I must even though no one wants to listen to it. And in that spirit, I report here how I noticed a price gap in the Japanese yen futures exchange. This report probably is not needed, everyone on Earth who might care probably has a software program on their computer flashing the fact to their screen. I don’t have such a program, and the chain of absurdity through which I noticed the yen gap is so unlikely and so uninteresting that I hesitate to go into it too much. So I’ll try to keep it brief.
After losing money in the wheat market several weeks straight into the fall, I caught on months too late the US dollar was breaking multiyear highs as wheat was breaking new multiyear lows. I was so late, and so impressed with what I had learned, that I even purchased and dumped a micro-sized Euro contract in one day (with a well-defined stop)
for a $70 loss plus commission, just as the Federal Reserve announced they are less likely to raise interest rates than had been anticipated. So I began daily surveys of the FX markets, just as the US-dollar seemed to be violently backing off a major high, ebola appeared in the US, and the financial world went into its most significant mini-panic in years with significant punctures in crude oil and US stocks, and a dramatic spike high in bond prices.
Well, I noticed the yen price had an interesting daily chart, and subsequently that there was a gap. Because the dollar strength—and by corollary the yen in inverse—is so correlated to wheat’s price, the yen is relevant to grain prices. Also, it’s an interesting market to analyze in a period of high-anxiety in high capital, as a traditional safe-haven trying to recover from major lows.
Well, on October 13, the yen traded low was 0.9300, and the high on October 10 was 0.9297. So there is a gap on the daily chart, although not on the weekly chart because on October 9, the contract traded a smidge above the critical level. This level is just above the major low just below 0.92. On October 16 and 17, the yen weakened, and it certainly looks like there may be determination to test that gap. I will have a buy order in a micro Monday morning!
Edited by LongKC 10/18/2014 00:50
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FX Gap
