West KY, Miss River County | I don't think we will see a straight, well lit road, but rather one with something for everyone.
1.Yields. Odds do not favor a bin-buster corn crop everywhere. Uniformity is needed to make a record crop. Assuming the economy cooperates, demand may be higher and eventually support higher CBOT prices. Areas with bumper crops will see devastating harvest basis. SB demand will be driven by short wheat then barley crops. Demand will be looking for wheat then rough grains-Barley & corn-then SB meal. Order may very, but first is demand for human consumption, then livestock. Increases in either crop prices probably won't be until commercials have a better handle on the crop size.
2.Prices. Harvest prices should follow seasonal patterns. Lower early then recovering. What will be the clinker will be when commercials and funds smell a short fall, there will be the rush to buy up the last morsel. Prices will rise to ensure all isn't sold. It gets too expensive to buy that last bushel!
3.Economy. This may be the trump card. The European Canary (Greece) is showing increased signs of loss of oxygen. The global economy is such that all the countries, through trade, finance and national banks, are acting as one. The Giant Squid (GS) has, or is, picking everyone's pocket with the CDS's.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-bonds-slump-austerity-backfi...
“The (pseudo) Summer vacation season is over, and millions of workers are coming back. They may not have money, but they have lots of free time, lots of unemployment, and even more pent up anger. Things are about to get very heated once again, first in Greece, and soon after, everywhere else.”
“The problem is that the austerity measures have in the meantime affected every aspect of the country's economy. Purchasing power is dropping, consumption is taking a nosedive and the number of bankruptcies and unemployed are on the rise. The country's gross domestic product shrank by 1.5 percent in the second quarter of this year. Tax revenue, desperately needed in order to consolidate the national finances, has dropped off. A mixture of fear, hopelessness and anger is brewing in Greek society. “
Crude is continuing to slide, even though BP wasted thousands of barrels in the Gulf.
Demand will be for hard items. In addition to food, appliances, cars, guns, and anything else that people think they will 'need soon' and have the money in their pocket to buy, will be in demand. If you can recall the early 70's, everything became in short supply and 'cost more tomorrow than it did yesterday,' --better get it while you're here.
Difficult to be brief in describing ag pricing. Sorry I don't have a way with short phrases like SC!
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Where do we go now?
