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| With acres and demand being unchanged from June.
The kicker for soy is demand destruction that is being priced is something that has never been seen in soy for decades in the form of lower exports.
So far, as good as I can tell, they've priced in at least a 100+ bushel cut in this year's exports from 2,065 to 1,950 BB, raising the carryout for 17-18 to near 625 mb.
And next year USDA has the balance sheet at 2290 exported bushels for soy!!!!
This is what currently is being slashed and is still in motion. Just a cut down to this year's export level would bring ending stocks next year to near 1,000 Billion bushels and a stocks to use of 23% or put another way around 85 days of supply remaining.
This is easily a 7.00 dollar per bushel item at that level and would be the largest soybean carryout since 1985-1986.
Wish the news was better, but China looks gone gone gone until at least fall. This is showing up in SA basis , and lack of sales and cancellations the last 2 weeks.
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Market now trading 182 corn yield and 50 soy
