| A little slow this week but I've updated the weekly data below. The ethanol side is being pushed to the wall on profitability which is somewhat seasonal.. It was like this last year also for Q1.. Mainly we are building stocks.. as we should headed into the summer driving season (I added data back to 1/1/16 for comparison.. but bandwidth ugh) which again as we switch to summer blends.. which will begin in about March'ish which is when we peaked out on stocks last year.. 3/4/16. So you can expect it to go similar this year.
We are actually about 900 k below last year's stocks week to week.. but again it's close enough.
The Grind has been phenomenal.. higher than expected.. up about 4.1% yoy.. we'll be entering seasonal maintenance so I'll expect some drop off.. flip side ethanol exports have been good and the market chatter continues to support continued business.. The implied number is up 38.8% but it's a small number so.. a big percentage change. My table shows domestic consumption flat but that compares the winter season vs last year's WHOLE YEAR so that's actually impressive as we enter higher demand months ahead.
The WASDE gave us our grind update so.. that card has been played.. I still believe we've got some revisions to lower the crop size from last year but just a hunch. Ethanol has been trading close to RBOB.. in parts of the country.. Midwest for sure.. ethanol is cheaper than petroleum and we are still seeing large interest in e-15 so the domestic demand front looks good so far.. tight margins but things should improve as demand picks up.
The domestic Crude has bumped the rig counts with domestic petroleum pushing 9 myn bbls per day.. we'll probably bump across that soon.. but as long as the economy grows.. we should be okay.
| | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of | 1/1/2016 | 996 | | 787 | | 0 | | 21,099 | 56% | | 75.7 | | 530 | | | 862.7 | 102,745 | | | 8159 | 9.65% | | 1/8/2016 | 1003 | | 807 | | 0 | | 21,345 | 56% | | 160.9 | | 1126 | | | 967.9 | 103,467 | | | 8500 | 9.49% | | 1/15/2016 | 983 | | 856 | | 0 | | 21,940 | 58% | | 42.0 | | 294 | | | 898.0 | 101,404 | | | 9079 | 9.43% | | 1/22/2016 | 961 | | 865 | | 0 | | 21,436 | 57% | | 168.0 | | 1176 | | | 1033.0 | 99,135 | | | 8941 | 9.67% | | 1/29/2016 | 959 | | 815 | | 0 | | 22,362 | 59% | | 11.7 | | 82 | 3,208 | 2,076 | 826.7 | 98,928 | | | 8341 | 9.77% | | 2/5/2016 | 969 | | 858 | | 0 | | 22,956 | 61% | | 26.1 | | 183 | | | 884.1 | 99,960 | | | 9122 | 9.41% | | 2/12/2016 | 975 | | 878 | | 0 | | 23,218 | 61% | | 59.6 | | 417 | | | 937.6 | 100,579 | | | 9203 | 9.54% | | 2/19/2016 | 994 | | 882 | | 0 | | 23,105 | 61% | | 128.1 | | 897 | | | 1010.1 | 102,539 | | | 9576 | 9.21% | | 2/26/2016 | 987 | | 882 | | 0 | | 22,624 | 60% | | 173.7 | | 1216 | 2,713 | 1,598 | 1055.7 | 101,817 | | | 9121 | 9.67% | | 3/4/2016 | 978 | | 878 | | 0 | | 23,307 | 61% | | 2.4 | | 17 | | | 880.4 | 100,888 | | | 9411 | 9.33% | | 3/11/2016 | 999 | | 888 | | 0 | | 22,853 | 60% | | 175.9 | | 1231 | | | 1063.9 | 103,055 | | | 9458 | 9.39% | | 3/18/2016 | 995 | | 867 | | 0 | | 22,519 | 59% | | 175.7 | | 1230 | | | 1042.7 | 102,642 | | | 9503 | 9.12% | | 3/25/2016 | 992 | | 890 | | 0 | | 23,022 | 61% | | 30.1 | | 211 | 2,689 | 2,270 | 920.1 | 102,333 | | | 9244 | 9.63% | | 4/1/2016 | 976 | | 898 | | 0 | | 22,214 | 59% | | 193.4 | | 1354 | | | 1091.4 | 100,682 | | | 9224 | 9.74% | | 4/8/2016 | 938 | | 907 | | 0 | | 22,317 | 59% | | 16.3 | | 114 | | | 923.3 | 96,762 | | | 9633 | 9.42% | | 4/15/2016 | 939 | | 893 | | 0 | | 22,046 | 58% | | 84.7 | | 593 | | | 977.7 | 96,865 | | | 9444 | 9.46% | | 4/22/2016 | 927 | | 918 | | 0 | | 21,629 | 57% | | 68.6 | | 480 | | | 986.6 | 95,627 | | | 9315 | 9.86% | | 4/29/2016 | 923 | | 910 | | 0 | | 22,201 | 59% | | -68.7 | | -481 | 2,060 | 2,276 | 841.3 | 95,215 | | | 9502 | 9.58% | | 5/6/2016 | 962 | | 890 | | 0 | | 21,252 | 56% | | 207.6 | | 1453 | | | 1097.6 | 99,238 | | | 9658 | 9.22% | | 5/13/2016 | 948 | | 918 | | 0 | | 21,103 | 56% | | 51.3 | | 359 | | | 969.3 | 97,794 | | | 9755 | 9.41% | | 5/20/2016 | 946 | | 916 | | 0 | | 20,813 | 55% | | 71.4 | | 500 | | | 987.4 | 97,587 | | | 9516 | 9.63% | | 5/27/2016 | 960 | | 922 | | 0 | | 20,769 | 55% | | 44.3 | | 310 | 2,622 | 1,328 | 966.3 | 99,032 | | | 9716 | 9.49% | | 6/3/2016 | 1006 | | 904 | | 0 | | 20,225 | 53% | | 179.7 | | 1258 | | | 1083.7 | 103,777 | | | 9568 | 9.45% | | 6/10/2016 | 1013 | | 922 | | 0 | | 21,182 | 56% | | -45.7 | | -320 | | | 876.3 | 104,499 | | | 9762 | 9.44% | | 6/17/2016 | 962 | | 928 | | 0 | | 21,110 | 56% | | 44.3 | | 310 | | | 972.3 | 99,238 | | | 9815 | 9.45% | | 6/24/2016 | 1003 | | 951 | | 26 | | 21,167 | 56% | | 69.9 | | 489 | 2,237 | 1,108 | 1020.9 | 103,467 | | | 9709 | 9.80% | | 7/1/2016 | 984 | | 957 | | 10 | | 21,557 | 57% | | -18.7 | | -131 | | | 938.3 | 101,507 | | | 9755 | 9.81% | | 7/8/2016 | 1004 | | 919 | | 0 | | 21,131 | 56% | | 145.9 | | 1021 | | | 1064.9 | 103,571 | | | 9671 | 9.50% | | 7/15/2016 | 1029 | | 934 | | 0 | | 21,157 | 56% | | 91.3 | | 639 | | | 1025.3 | 106,149 | | | 9785 | 9.55% | | 7/22/2016 | 998 | | 936 | | 0 | | 20,390 | 54% | | 171.6 | | 1201 | | | 1107.6 | 102,952 | | | 9797 | 9.55% | | 7/29/2016 | 1004 | | 951 | | 36 | | 20,603 | 54% | | 58.6 | | 410 | 3140 | 1,652 | 1009.6 | 103,571 | | | 9752 | 9.75% | | 8/5/2016 | 1018 | | 950 | | 0 | | 20,460 | 54% | | 88.4 | | 619 | | | 1038.4 | 105,015 | | | 9769 | 9.72% | | 8/12/2016 | 1029 | | 943 | | 0 | | 20,425 | 54% | | 91.0 | | 637 | | | 1034.0 | 106,149 | | | 9762 | 9.66% | | 8/19/2016 | 1028 | | 931 | | 37 | | 20,817 | 55% | | 78.0 | | 546 | | | 1009.0 | 106,046 | | | 9659 | 9.64% | | 8/26/2016 | 1023 | | 929 | | 0 | | 20,926 | 55% | | 78.4 | | 549 | 2351 | 1,856 | 1007.4 | 105,531 | | | 9511 | 9.77% | | 9/2/2016 | 998 | | 934 | | 0 | | 20,654 | 54% | | 102.9 | | 720 | | | 1036.9 | 102,952 | | | 9595 | 9.73% | | 9/9/2016 | 1004 | | 921 | | 0 | | 20,207 | 53% | | 146.9 | | 1028 | | | 1067.9 | 103,571 | | | 9406 | 9.79% | | 9/16/2016 | 981 | | 920 | | 0 | | 20,016 | 53% | | 88.3 | | 618 | | | 1008.3 | 101,198 | | | 9650 | 9.53% | | 9/23/2016 | 989 | | 907 | | 0 | | 20,578 | 54% | | 1.7 | | 12 | | | 908.7 | 102,023 | | | 8880 | 10.21% | | 9/30/2016 | 980 | | 919 | | 0 | | 20,177 | 53% | | 118.3 | | 828 | 3206 | 2,373 | 1037.3 | 101,095 | | | 9390 | 9.79% | | 10/7/2016 | 962 | | 916 | | 0 | | 19,393 | 51% | | 158.0 | | 1106 | | | 1074.0 | 99,238 | | | 9264 | 9.89% | | 10/14/2016 | 998 | | 915 | | 0 | | 19,042 | 50% | | 133.1 | | 932 | | | 1048.1 | 102,952 | | | 8798 | 10.40% | | 10/21/2016 | 991 | | 918 | | 0 | | 19,919 | 53% | | -52.3 | | -366 | | | 865.7 | 102,229 | | | 9118 | 10.07% | | 10/28/2016 | 1022 | | 922 | | 0 | | 19,739 | 52% | | 125.7 | | 880 | 2552 | 3,135 | 1047.7 | 105,427 | | | 9183 | 10.04% | | 11/4/2016 | 1002 | | 923 | | 0 | | 19,229 | 51% | | 151.9 | | 1063 | | | 1074.9 | 103,364 | | | 9213 | 10.02% | | 11/11/2016 | 1017 | | 904 | | 0 | | 18,609 | 49% | | 201.6 | | 1411 | | | 1105.6 | 104,912 | | | 9359 | 9.66% | | 11/18/2016 | 1014 | | 917 | | 0 | | 18,952 | 50% | | 48.0 | | 336 | | | 965.0 | 104,602 | | | 9024 | 10.16% | | 11/25/2016 | 1012 | | 906 | | 0 | | 18,448 | 49% | | 178.0 | | 1246 | 4056 | 2,904 | 1084.0 | 104,396 | | | 9080 | 9.98% | | 12/2/2016 | 1023 | | 872 | | 0 | | 18,530 | 49% | | 139.3 | | 975 | | | 1011.3 | 105,531 | | | 8757 | 9.96% | | 12/9/2016 | 1040 | | 894 | | 0 | | 19,076 | 50% | | 68.0 | | 476 | | | 962.0 | 107,284 | | | 8874 | 10.07% | | 12/16/2016 | 1036 | | 918 | | 0 | | 19,060 | 50% | | 120.3 | | 842 | | | 1038.3 | 106,872 | | | 9269 | 9.90% | | 12/23/2016 | 1028 | | 935 | | 0 | | 18,683 | 49% | | 146.9 | | 1028 | | | 1081.9 | 106,046 | | | 9278 | 10.08% | | 12/30/2016 | 1043 | | 845 | | 0 | | 18,678 | 49% | | 198.7 | | 1391 | 4712 | | 1043.7 | 107,594 | | | 9278 | 9.11% | | 1/6/2017 | 1049 | | 806 | | 0 | | 20,009 | 53% | | 52.9 | | 370 | | | 858.9 | 108,213 | | | 8470 | 9.52% | | 1/13/2017 | 1054 | | 840 | | 0 | | 21,115 | 56% | | 56.0 | | 392 | | | 896.0 | 108,728 | | | 8069 | 10.41% | | 1/20/2017 | 1051 | | 833 | | 0 | | 21,728 | 57% | | 130.4 | | 913 | | | 963.4 | 108,419 | | | 8039 | 10.36% | | 1/27/2017 | 1061 | | 837 | | 0 | | 21,870 | 58% | | 203.7 | | 1426 | 3101 | | 1040.7 | 109,451 | | | 8310 | 10.07% | | 2/3/2017 | 1055 | | 875 | | 0 | | 22,085 | 58% | | 149.3 | | 1045 | | | 1024.3 | 108,832 | | | 8941 | 9.79% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16/17 MY 14 wks | 1017.8 | | 894.7 | | 0.0 | | 19817.3 | | | 116.0 | | 811.8 | 3525.4 | 2804.0 | 1010.6 | 104,997 | 2,415 | myn bu | 9010.7 | 9.94% | | 15/16 MY 52 wks | 977.9 | | 894.4 | | 5.3 | | 20846.4 | | | 83.6 | | 584.9 | 2576.3 | 1733.1 | 977.9 | 100,882 | 686 | myn bu | 9338.8 | | | | | | | | | | 22956.0 | yr ago | | | | | | | | 4114.3 | 1,729 | myn bu | | | | 16 vs 15 | 4.1% | | 0.0% | | | | -13.7% | yr ago | | 38.8% | | 38.8% | 36.8% | 61.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 252.0% | | -3.5% | | | Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Cheers.
Edited by JonSCKs 2/11/2017 12:42
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