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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 2/11/2017 12:41 (#5832528)
Subject: Ethanol update.


A little slow this week but I've updated the weekly data below.  The ethanol side is being pushed to the wall on profitability which is somewhat seasonal.. It was like this last year also for Q1.. Mainly we are building stocks.. as we should headed into the summer driving season (I added data back to 1/1/16 for comparison.. but bandwidth ugh) which again as we switch to summer blends.. which will begin in about March'ish which is when we peaked out on stocks last year.. 3/4/16.  So you can expect it to go similar this year.

We are actually about 900 k below last year's stocks week to week.. but again it's close enough.

The Grind has been phenomenal.. higher than expected.. up about 4.1% yoy.. we'll be entering seasonal maintenance so I'll expect some drop off.. flip side ethanol exports have been good and the market chatter continues to support continued business..  The implied number is up 38.8% but it's a small number so.. a big percentage change.  My table shows domestic consumption flat but that compares the winter season vs last year's WHOLE YEAR so that's actually impressive as we enter higher demand months ahead.

The WASDE gave us our grind update so.. that card has been played.. I still believe we've got some revisions to lower the crop size from last year but just a hunch.  Ethanol has been trading close to RBOB.. in parts of the country.. Midwest for sure.. ethanol is cheaper than petroleum and we are still seeing large interest in e-15 so the domestic demand front looks good so far.. tight margins but things should improve as demand picks up.

The domestic Crude has bumped the rig counts with domestic petroleum pushing 9 myn bbls per day.. we'll probably bump across that soon.. but as long as the economy grows.. we should be okay.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of
1/1/2016996 787 0 21,09956% 75.7 530  862.7102,745  81599.65% 
1/8/20161003 807 0 21,34556% 160.9 1126  967.9103,467  85009.49% 
1/15/2016983 856 0 21,94058% 42.0 294  898.0101,404  90799.43% 
1/22/2016961 865 0 21,43657% 168.0 1176  1033.099,135  89419.67% 
1/29/2016959 815 0 22,36259% 11.7 823,2082,076826.798,928  83419.77% 
2/5/2016969 858 0 22,95661% 26.1 183  884.199,960  91229.41% 
2/12/2016975 878 0 23,21861% 59.6 417  937.6100,579  92039.54% 
2/19/2016994 882 0 23,10561% 128.1 897  1010.1102,539  95769.21% 
2/26/2016987 882 0 22,62460% 173.7 12162,7131,5981055.7101,817  91219.67% 
3/4/2016978 878 0 23,30761% 2.4 17  880.4100,888  94119.33% 
3/11/2016999 888 0 22,85360% 175.9 1231  1063.9103,055  94589.39% 
3/18/2016995 867 0 22,51959% 175.7 1230  1042.7102,642  95039.12% 
3/25/2016992 890 0 23,02261% 30.1 2112,6892,270920.1102,333  92449.63% 
4/1/2016976 898 0 22,21459% 193.4 1354  1091.4100,682  92249.74% 
4/8/2016938 907 0 22,31759% 16.3 114  923.396,762  96339.42% 
4/15/2016939 893 0 22,04658% 84.7 593  977.796,865  94449.46% 
4/22/2016927 918 0 21,62957% 68.6 480  986.695,627  93159.86% 
4/29/2016923 910 0 22,20159% -68.7 -4812,0602,276841.395,215  95029.58% 
5/6/2016962 890 0 21,25256% 207.6 1453  1097.699,238  96589.22% 
5/13/2016948 918 0 21,10356% 51.3 359  969.397,794  97559.41% 
5/20/2016946 916 0 20,81355% 71.4 500  987.497,587  95169.63% 
5/27/2016960 922 0 20,76955% 44.3 3102,6221,328966.399,032  97169.49% 
6/3/20161006 904 0 20,22553% 179.7 1258  1083.7103,777  95689.45% 
6/10/20161013 922 0 21,18256% -45.7 -320  876.3104,499  97629.44% 
6/17/2016962 928 0 21,11056% 44.3 310  972.399,238  98159.45% 
6/24/20161003 951 26 21,16756% 69.9 4892,2371,1081020.9103,467  97099.80% 
7/1/2016984 957 10 21,55757% -18.7 -131  938.3101,507  97559.81% 
7/8/20161004 919 0 21,13156% 145.9 1021  1064.9103,571  96719.50% 
7/15/20161029 934 0 21,15756% 91.3 639  1025.3106,149  97859.55% 
7/22/2016998 936 0 20,39054% 171.6 1201  1107.6102,952  97979.55% 
7/29/20161004 951 36 20,60354% 58.6 41031401,6521009.6103,571  97529.75% 
8/5/20161018 950 0 20,46054% 88.4 619  1038.4105,015  97699.72% 
8/12/20161029 943 0 20,42554% 91.0 637  1034.0106,149  97629.66% 
8/19/20161028 931 37 20,81755% 78.0 546  1009.0106,046  96599.64% 
8/26/20161023 929 0 20,92655% 78.4 54923511,8561007.4105,531  95119.77% 
9/2/2016998 934 0 20,65454% 102.9 720  1036.9102,952  95959.73% 
9/9/20161004 921 0 20,20753% 146.9 1028  1067.9103,571  94069.79% 
9/16/2016981 920 0 20,01653% 88.3 618  1008.3101,198  96509.53% 
9/23/2016989 907 0 20,57854% 1.7 12  908.7102,023  888010.21% 
9/30/2016980 919 0 20,17753% 118.3 82832062,3731037.3101,095  93909.79% 
10/7/2016962 916 0 19,39351% 158.0 1106  1074.099,238  92649.89% 
10/14/2016998 915 0 19,04250% 133.1 932  1048.1102,952  879810.40% 
10/21/2016991 918 0 19,91953% -52.3 -366  865.7102,229  911810.07% 
10/28/20161022 922 0 19,73952% 125.7 88025523,1351047.7105,427  918310.04% 
11/4/20161002 923 0 19,22951% 151.9 1063  1074.9103,364  921310.02% 
11/11/20161017 904 0 18,60949% 201.6 1411  1105.6104,912  93599.66% 
11/18/20161014 917 0 18,95250% 48.0 336  965.0104,602  902410.16% 
11/25/20161012 906 0 18,44849% 178.0 124640562,9041084.0104,396  90809.98% 
12/2/20161023 872 0 18,53049% 139.3 975  1011.3105,531  87579.96% 
12/9/20161040 894 0 19,07650% 68.0 476  962.0107,284  887410.07% 
12/16/20161036 918 0 19,06050% 120.3 842  1038.3106,872  92699.90% 
12/23/20161028 935 0 18,68349% 146.9 1028  1081.9106,046  927810.08% 
12/30/20161043 845 0 18,67849% 198.7 13914712 1043.7107,594  92789.11% 
1/6/20171049 806 0 20,00953% 52.9 370  858.9108,213  84709.52% 
1/13/20171054 840 0 21,11556% 56.0 392  896.0108,728  806910.41% 
1/20/20171051 833 0 21,72857% 130.4 913  963.4108,419  803910.36% 
1/27/20171061 837 0 21,87058% 203.7 14263101 1040.7109,451  831010.07% 
2/3/20171055 875 0 22,08558% 149.3 1045  1024.3108,832  89419.79% 
                      
16/17 MY 14 wks1017.8 894.7 0.0 19817.3  116.0 811.83525.42804.01010.6104,9972,415myn bu9010.79.94% 
15/16 MY 52 wks977.9 894.4 5.3 20846.4  83.6 584.92576.31733.1977.9100,882686myn bu9338.8  
       22956.0yr ago       4114.31,729myn bu   
16 vs 154.1% 0.0%   -13.7%yr ago 38.8% 38.8%36.8%61.8%3.3%4.1%252.0% -3.5%  

 

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

Cheers. 



Edited by JonSCKs 2/11/2017 12:42
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