I was wrong.. golly I guess they got more corn in Indiana than Kansas...

( http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-01-1... )

 huh.. oh well.  maybe I am delusional?  Wife would probably agree...  

I don't mean to brag but.. this week I've been hauling in my 25 bu dryland double crop soybeans.. GOOD Crop!!  ( So what did your beans yield? )

remember me posting about planting them?

( http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=641227&pos... )

 

that would be a good read.. go back and dust up on it.. might help put some "color" on yesterday's report..

Sat - That's where to trouble is the March 31th intentions report survey were done earlier March when beans were trade 9.00ish. By the time the planters rolled they were pushing $12 with talk of much higher. A $3 rally in beans producers see $$$ signs, made worse by the blood bath in cash wheat prices and producers needing to make some money on something. IDK but that sure looks like a DC = "Double Carrot" to me 

Jon posted the RMA planting deadline for his area was June 25th. It would not be the first time producers pushed the planting dates later because of a huge rally. If there's gonna be a shocker in next Thursday's report its the bean acres. Plus that rain in Kansas is just not gonna make beans. 

Rally's and planting dates, back in June of 2011 we had guys up here muddling in wheat the the 15-20th of June. Out final planting date on spring wheat is June 1st. That wheat looked like junk coming up, looking like junk in the summer and they harvested junk come fall. WHY ??? Mr. Market dangled a $11 plus wheat carrot right in front of their noses.

btw.. we did get rain.. and as such with $12+ beans last summer I helped the neighbor put "more" in..  "sure was fun."

Anywho So I'm just trucking down the road.. happy as a clam..  and Hawk Nelson comes on..

( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_r47Xhkf20 )

Yipper "Life's great."

".. your working way too hard.. "
".. it's okay to act like you've been set free.."

Wednesday the line at the bean plant was.. 2 hours long.. like everyone wanted to beat this big bad bearish crop report.. "bummer they say it's gonna be bad." 

Big acres.. 70 bu yields EVERYWHERE back east.. BIG CROP..  BIG BIG BIG..  (did I mention mine made 25?.. and I'm pretty proud of that..well.. modestly proud at least.. afterall it's only Kansas.. and 25 bu beans.. ain't bad.. 5 bu beans.. not that's a CROP FAILURE.)

So the crop report comes on.. "smaller bean crop".. "lower stocks than expected..???"  "WHAT?!?  say it aint so?  Thought we'd see $6 beans in our future...???

btw if Beans are going to $6.. I ain't planting them.. 25 bu x 6 = $150.. "no thanks."

Anywho.. got to the bean plant.. NO LINES yesterday.. pulled right on the scales and dumped.. came home.

"go figure.."

So about 7..8..9% of the soybean crop is double cropped eh?  And with the Wheat acreage numbers.. the pool is shrinking a bit..for 2017..??? (granted it's only Kansas.. and Kentucky.. Carolina's etc.. Southern Illinois etc.. that is the big double cropping bean belt..)  but since there's less Wheat.. what's the odds that there's gonna be less soybeans double cropped..  So the NET EFFECT will be LESS TOTAL planted acres.. right?

That's how it looks to me..

but then again JPartner says he's looking for $11.90 on the novy's.. "Around 11.90 'X'"

( http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=680714&mid=5763010#M5763010 )

Golly so I guess you never really know for sure..??

hmm.. now I'm confused.. AND delusional..  oh well..  

Somebody loves me anyway.. ;-)

oh since someone will ask.. in my county you can not insure double crop dryland soybeans.. so these were TOTALLY free bono.. on me.

Now the irrigated.. you can if you beat the deadline.. but they cut the yield.. and yes those were insured.. but no I did NOT have a claim.. so these beanies are NOT an Insurance play... but.. the last couple of years I've done the RMA on insurance.. EXPENSIVE!!!  and given all the doom and gloom prices in the FUTURE they say are gonna SUCK.. so I doubt that I'll do much.. or ANY RMA this year.. looks like more FREE BONO.. 

However, I DID have to REPORT them to USDA.. so yipper they were IN that ACREAGE REPORT yesterday.. and since I reported my stocks.. so were the yields..

"Totally Free Market."

"Live Like your FREE baby.."
"Live like you know your Valuable.. don't be afraid to live in that grace.."
"no more guilt.. shame.. GO AHEAD LIVE LIKE YOU'RE LOVED.. LIKE YOU'VE BEEN SET FREE.."

great song.

bye.

edit add: my full season irrigated beaners did do 70.. so that was ALSO good.. yipper life's great.. but those were sold last summer and probably on a boat headed to CHINA now.. later.. glad we got that all cleared up.

final edit:  flatened carry in the bean market.. Stocks report shows that the commercials hold more of the inventory than the farmer.. looks like the Farmer PITCHED IT.. and now it's hedged.. sitting in commercial hands.. exports pop up and carry comes out..???

"always something."