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South Central Iowa | Well we had our reversal higher today. Soybeans fought off a down trend for now. I guess I will throw a chart out, would love to see and hear the points of anyone else. I would not be surprised at all to see a retracement of our move up in the overnight. I am going to have a buy order in at the 50% point. That is $10.04'2. I think that if we do dip, we need to stay above $10.00 in order to validate a new move up, $10.00 is also our 100 MA. There is a weak trend line (middle green one, 3 up or 3 down, there are 5 total) that crosses on the daily tonight and tomorrow at $10.01'4. $10.01'4 is also the 38% Fibonacci of our move today; that really should be what holds if we dip.
Out of the gate, there is a steep downward trend line to the upside that needs broken. Our high today is the 4th or 5th confirmation of that steep red line, depending on how you want to count. If we go up over a penny at open, we break it. After that is a steep green trend line that cuts through the middle of the chart. The market has played around it a few times and it was for a while, before Christmas, the lower end a wedge. That line is at $10.26 tomorrow and it crosses with our high from last week, $10.28'2, on Tuesday, January 9th. Break that and resistance will come from our October high, and possible shoulder, $10.37'2. After that, stiffest resistance will come from the major down trend line. That is the top red line on the chart. It is from our summer high to our November and December highs. That should be pretty strong. The point where it crosses with the upper green trend line is $10.57 on January 17th. After that of course is $10.74, the penultimate of Autumn.
Moving averages are tonight: 100 day: $10.00, 50 day: $10.22, 20 day: $10.27. Expect support resistance from those as well. I didn't include Fibonacci's in the chart to keep clean. From $9.92'6 to $10.74 they are as follows:
24% - $10.12'0
38% - $10.23'6
50% - $10.33'2
62% - $10.43'0
76% - $10.54'6
79% - $10.56'4
So, buy targets if we get a dip for me are $10.04'2 and $10.01'4. Don't break $10.00! Go up and break $10.26-10.28'2, then $10.37'2, then red trend line and "death zone" from $10.43-$10.57. Then break $10.74. Might be wary of $10.61 & $10.65, the highs of the continuous as seen on the January contract.
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 7ZHgGbIj.png (91KB - 104 downloads)
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Soybean Chart
