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| And one on the boat…I choked on my small short sept wheat position (almost on the high). Still long a little old crop wheat, july corn & jan beans. An EXAMPLE OF WHAT NOT TO DO. A good sign I am not on the cutting edge & may be rapidly approaching my senile years. I like trading spreads when put on initially as a spread, but this is a bull market & the short sept was just a “quick trade.” A body blow to the ego. I think there are a lot of folks wanting to buy the wheat but fear tomorrow’s report. If the beans and wheat are for real, and USDA doesn’t throw a wrench into the deal, the show is again about to start, or fold the cards right here and look for a real job….car wash is still the best to hope for at my age. I sense there is a predominant feeling among analysts and some traders that the old crop wheat has put in a top..maybe, I do know I do not want to be short…riots in the streets in Morocco the other day about the price of bread..tough to ration wheat. Same for soybeans. Corn is much easier to ration at this moment, but a year from now with more ethanol plants, it might be a little tougher. I’ve been through my share of drought markets, eventually rain arrives when in the corn belt…the same may be true in Brazil..but they do require a lot of rain and pretty quickly..their soil is not water retentive and it is not wise to plant in the dust down there as much of the soil is very acidic.
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one foot on the dock
